ANÁLISIS DE UN MODELO ESTADÍSTICO PARA EVALUAR LA PROBABILIDAD DE QUIEBRA EMPRESARIAL.

Abstract

Corporate bankruptcy is probably one of the most important problems of the economy of developing countries and a phenomenon that has been growing for several reasons, disrupting the fulfillment of macroeconomic goals. The control state institutions require companies to establish reliable mechanisms for predicting potential bankruptcy of the companies under its supervision, to take timely measures to prevent this from happening. The aim of this paper is to analyze at least three of the existing statistical models and select the one that best suits the need for a prediction of the potential risk of insolvency of companies in Ecuador. After reviewing the theory and apply it to data from official sources, we conclude that the model that meets our expectations of prediction is the Altman Z-Score, for its simplicity and ease of implementation, maintenance and interpretation