ANÁLISIS DEL RIESGO, OPCIONES REALES Y PRESUPUESTO DE CAPITAL EN LA INDUSTRIA METALMECÁNICA EN EL ECUADOR, PERIODO 2009-2014

Abstract

The metal-mechanic industry has great integration potential and is considered as a fundamental pillar for the development of strategic projects, and also a great employment generator. Globally, the most representative countries of the metal-mechanic industry are Germany, Japan and China. In Latin America, the most representative countries are Argentina, Brazil and Chile. In Ecuador, the metal-mechanic industry is very important in the production chain, besides being one of the prioritized industries in the Productive Matrix Transformation Project. This research proposes an analysis through the Z2-Altman predictive model in order to determine the attractiveness that the metal-mechanic industry could have for future investors. The analysis results indicate that the metal-mechanic industry shows a high level of financial solvency during the analysis period which, together with the benefits provided by the current government, make the industry more attractive to new investors